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World Cement Outlook Remains Moderately Optimistic

The CW Group’s twice-yearly cement demand, capacity production outlook published in the Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR) predicts that global cement demand will pause in 2014 at 3,9 % year on year, following a stronger-than-expected 2013. In 2013, global cement demand expanded 6,6 % to 3,99 billion t on surging Chinese demand, but growth will moderate 3,7 %/a on average through 2018. Even though we believe ex-China growth remaining positive beyond 2014, the shape of the growth curve flattened for the longer term as some of the largest cement markets, including India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia, dial back. A major negative revision for 2014 was for Africa (2,5 % lower), mostly driven by North Africa where countries, such as Egypt and Morocco, are still struggling to find footing, or continue seeing turbulence. However, CW Research is more optimistic that Western Europe will manage to build support for a recovery in 2014; the area is the only region in our forecast that we have upgraded (+0.5 %) on benign core markets. Nonetheless, the region as a whole will still be in the red for 2014 on an overall 1 % decline in cement consumption – the only region as a whole that is expected to contract in 2014. The GCVFR report is available.

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